The RTB Brief · Bankability

Bankability anchors: LCOE, capex and the levered return

The Romanian arithmetic closes: a cost floor below the CfD strike, well-benchmarked capex, and infrastructure-grade levered returns — indicative ranges, never guaranteed.

Bankability anchors: LCOE, capex and the levered return

Bankability is, in the end, an arithmetic question: does a stabilised revenue line clear the cost of building and financing the asset, with enough left over to pay equity an infrastructure-grade return? For Romanian utility-scale PV the arithmetic still closes — but two auction rounds have compressed the margin, and the discipline has moved from capturing a spread to controlling capex.

The cost floor

The levelised cost of energy (LCOE) for utility-scale PV in Romania sits in roughly the €40–55/MWh band, in line with IRENA's 2024 global utility-scale benchmark of about USD 0.043/kWh. Capex is well-benchmarked and falling: IRENA put the global total installed cost of utility-scale solar at roughly USD 691/kW in 2024, an 11% year-on-year decrease — consistent with a Romanian build cost in the order of €0.6–0.7 million per MWp. Battery storage adds a separate capex line, indicatively €350–450 per kWh at system level, though this figure moves quickly with cell prices.

Parameter Indicative range Reference
Utility PV LCOE (Romania) €40–55/MWh IRENA 2024; RO auction bids
Utility PV capex ~€0.6–0.7m/MWp IRENA 2024 (USD 691/kW)
BESS capex (system) ~€350–450/kWh Industry benchmark, indicative
CfD solar strike (R1 → R2) €51 → €40.5/MWh RO Ministry of Energy

Where the margin went

In Round 1 (December 2024) the average solar strike of €51/MWh sat comfortably above the cost floor — a genuine spread. By Round 2 (August 2025) the average had fallen to €40.5/MWh, brushing the bottom of the LCOE band. The implication is precise and worth stating plainly:

A CfD no longer pays for a fat margin over cost. It pays for fifteen years of contracted, EUR-denominated certainty. At today's strikes, equity returns are protected by capex discipline and execution — not by a generous spread.

The capital stack

Project finance for a CfD- or PPA-anchored Romanian asset is available at a bankable debt-to-equity ratio of roughly 65/35 to 75/25, from a lender pool that includes EBRD, IFC and EIB-backed institutions alongside Romanian commercial banks. The contracted revenue line is what makes the senior debt sizeable: lenders gear against a strike they can underwrite, not a merchant curve they must discount.

Senior debt65–75%
Equity25–35%
Indicative bankable capital structure for a CfD/PPA-anchored Romanian PV project. Actual gearing depends on contract quality, grid status and sponsor.

The levered return

For PV anchored by a CfD or a creditworthy PPA, levered equity returns fall in an infrastructure-grade range, indicatively 9–13%. That is a market range, not a forecast for any specific project, and it is never guaranteed. What moves a project within — or below — that band is execution, not slogan: realised capex against budget, grid connection status and timing, financing terms, and counterparty quality on any merchant or PPA tail beyond the CfD.

What this means

The headline for an investor is that the Romanian PV arithmetic still closes — but the easy money in the spread has largely been auctioned away. The projects that protect equity returns from here are the ones with disciplined, well-benchmarked capex, a clean grid position, and a senior lender already comfortable with the CfD structure. Bankability in Romania is no longer a question of whether the model works; it is a question of whether your capex and execution clear a strike that has already fallen 20% in eight months.

Sources: IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2024 (2025); Romanian Ministry of Energy, CfD Round 1 (Dec 2024) and Round 2 (Aug 2025) results; EBRD / IFC / EIB project-finance practice. Capital-structure and return ranges are indicative market observations.

This note is general market commentary, not investment advice. Returns and ranges are indicative and never guaranteed; they depend on execution, grid status, financing terms and counterparty quality. SolarPlants is the commercial brand of VERDEVOLT PROIECT S.R.L.

Cristian Ștefan
Senior Market Analyst · SolarPlants

Eleven years in European power and renewable-energy markets — auction design, pricing and project finance. Focuses on Romanian PV, BESS and the Contract for Difference, and tracks the data behind The RTB Brief.

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